Integrated Computational Materials, Process and Product Engineering – IC-MPPE 2022

Remaining useful life (RuL) model for electronic systems, e.g. for power electronics, deals with the prediction of possible service life and failures under different types of operating conditions. It is almost impossible to precisely predict future events; therefore, it is necessary to account for the different sources of uncertainty that affect lifetime estimations. Beside the RuL modelling aspect and the need of an accurate data base, the computation of the remaining useful life is meaningful in the context of condition-based monitoring and needs to be approached as an uncertainty propagation problem. The first impact factor is the aleatory uncertainty from inherently-variable inputs of the physical system and its environment such as material properties, process parameters and service parameter. The second impact factor is the epistemic uncertainty from a lack of knowledge or incomplete information about the system and its environment in service. Both uncertainties must be considered to provide the most accurate assessment of the RuL model. The work discusses the different sources of uncertainty and their usability for RuL modelling of power electronics systems.